Airlines forecast record Thanksgiving travel as the longest government shutdown ends, but concerns over future shutdowns loom.
Story Overview
- Airlines predict over 31 million travelers this Thanksgiving.
- The recent government shutdown severely impacted air travel.
- Air travel industry seeks legislative protection against future shutdowns.
- Spirit Airlines slashes capacity amid financial struggles.
Record Thanksgiving Travel Expected
U.S. airlines are gearing up for another record Thanksgiving travel period in 2025, with Airlines for America predicting over 31 million passengers between November 21 and December 1.
The busiest travel days are anticipated to be Sunday and Monday following Thanksgiving, with 3.4 million and 3.1 million travelers, respectively. This forecast comes as a relief to airlines following the resolution of the longest government shutdown, which significantly disrupted air travel.
The recent government shutdown led to shortages of air traffic controllers, who were forced to work without pay, resulting in flight delays and cancellations for approximately 6 million travelers.
In response, the airline industry is urging lawmakers to pass legislation guaranteeing air traffic controllers’ pay during future shutdowns to prevent air travel from becoming a political bargaining chip.
'Stakes are high.' With shutdown over, airlines predict record numbers of travelers this Thanksgiving https://t.co/sxD2PtGnGr
— CNBC (@CNBC) November 23, 2025
Economic Impact and Recovery
The shutdown’s financial impact was significant, with Bank of America estimating that major airlines could face a $150 million to $200 million hit in operating income, while smaller carriers might see a $100 million impact.
However, the end of the shutdown has sparked a resurgence in travel bookings. United Airlines reported a 16% increase in bookings immediately following the shutdown, with international travel seeing a record high, particularly to Cancun, London, and Frankfurt.
United Airlines projects it will serve 6.6 million customers over the Thanksgiving period, a 4% increase from last year. The largest U.S. carriers have increased their international capacity by 5% and domestic capacity by 2% compared to the previous year.
Challenges for Budget Airlines
While major airlines are expanding their schedules, budget carrier Spirit Airlines is facing severe challenges. Currently undergoing its second bankruptcy in less than a year, Spirit has slashed its domestic capacity by nearly 40% and furloughed hundreds of pilots.
These cuts are part of Spirit’s efforts to stabilize its financial situation amid ongoing struggles.
The stakes are high as the holiday season approaches, with the industry hoping to avoid another shutdown, as the current government funding bill expires in January. This leaves the potential for renewed travel disruptions just before winter and spring break travel peaks.
